We provide a semi-empirical model based on in situ degradation measurements to predict the durability of hybrid perovskite materials under simulated thermal operation conditions. In the model, the degradation path of MAPbI3 layers is proved to follow an Arrhenius-type law. The predictive role is played by the activation energy combined with its pre-exponential factor. Our comparative study under moisture conditions with respect to vacuum and nitrogen treatments has assessed the occurrence of an intrinsic dynamic exchange of protons between the organic cations and the inorganic cage with a direct impact on the lattice stability, for which the presence of water molecules is not mandatory. This mutual interaction produces defects inside the material and volatile species, such as HI, CH3NH2 or MAI, with an associated experimental activation energy of 1.54 eV measured under vacuum conditions in dark. This …